Simulation study on the spread and control of classical swine fever

The impact of different risk factos on the size of classical swine fever epidemic was analysed. The number of daily farm contacts, the probability of infection after contact, the probability of local spread, the daily probability of detection of an outbreak, the incubation period as well as the farm density had a significant influence on disease development. The control measures stamping-out infected farms, movement restriction, contact tracing with pre-emptive slaughter of the contact farms and pre-emptive slaughter within 1 km of the outbreak were compared with regard on their effect on the number of infected, restricted and culled farms. For the region under observation stamping-out infected farms, movement restrictions and contact tracing were sufficient to keep the epidemic under control. The efficiency in contact tracing had an impact on the number of infected farms. The effect of a more rapid contact tracing was larger when the primary outbreak had occurred on a farrowing farm or when just stamping-out was implemented but no movement restrictions and pre-emptive slaughter. The simulation program may be used as a teaching tool in disease control and for risk analysis considering different regions or situations.einsetzen.

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